Forecasting what's going to happen in our dynamic small and family business economy is not for the faint of heart. But some organizations are intrepid enough to make the leap, and there are things we may glean from their reports. See why reviewing leading economic indicators is important for you and your business here.
As 2011 came to a close and 2012 got off to a start, there was a great deal of optimism among family business owners and operators that The Great Recession was finally over. There was some slightly encouraging news from the housing industry that we had hit the bottom and were beginning to rebound a bit. As for The Family Business Institute, one of our internal barometers looked encouraging; the number and frequency of family businesses contacting us shot upward to a rate not seen since 2008. At speeches and conventions, we were hearing tales of modest improvements all around the country. In short, many family business leaders were breathing sighs of relief and dreaming of a return to the good old days.
Not so fast, Brothers and Sisters! Recent data from The Conference Board, Tatum CFO, and The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) indicate that, while the economy is no longer in recession, the recovery is fragile and is historically weak when compared to previous recoveries.
Why are family businesses pulling in their horns and managing conservatively once again? What happened to the optimism of Q4 2011 and Q1 2012? There are two primary reasons:
1. Family business owners are very concerned about the weak recovery slipping back into recession. Most family firms have cut, cut, and cut some more until they feel they have not only cut the fat out of their companies but have also had to cut flesh as well. Many have had the heartbreaking task of letting trusted and valued employees - friends - go for the sake of the business' health. If things turn down again, as they have in England and Western Europe, they can't imagine where they'd make their next round of cost reduction, and worse, they wonder if it's worthwhile to even stay in business when it's simply not fun anymore.
2. Family business leaders are terrified of what our politicians are doing to our country and business climate at the public policy level. It's hard to tell intelligent, perceptive business people who have dramatically pared back the size and scope of their companies and personal lifestyles that federal, state, and local governments cannot set priorities and cut budgets but instead must continue to grow without any real world constraints whatsoever. They see what fostering cradle to grave entitlement mentalities has done to the domestic workforce, and they see in Western Europe the disastrous results of the Nanny State gone wild. Most family business leaders believe in self-reliance and individual accountability, and know in their hearts that spending, regulating, threatening to tax, and creating ever more dependence on government is no way to rebuild our economy. Perhaps many are waiting to see the results of the fall election before getting too set with their future plans.
Family businesses are nothing if not courageous and resilient. But, in spite of their pluck, they are not immune to the slow growth, hypercompetitive nature of macro economy. The forecast for the balance of 2012 is a "New Normal" way of thinking about managing the people and resources in your family business. When there's better news, we'll be thrilled to pass it along.
The Family Business Institute is a professional consulting firm dedicated to serving the needs of the family and closely held business market. For more information, visit our website or contact us by calling (888) 438-1948.
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